Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
