Several in the Labour Party Want Starmer Gone. The Prime Minister Informs Me He Will Survive – while the Economic Outlook Is Set to Strengthen.
"I will be sitting in the same office by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer remarked, joking that if the discussion went well, he might invite the interviewer into his official residence for another talk in the coming year.
There is rarely ever time off for those in the top job. Shortly before our chat started, Starmer had been on the phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and working to understand what on earth had happened in Venezuela, where his key political chum, US President Donald Trump, had recently targeted and seized its leader, Nicolás Maduro.
By the time our interview, which was considerably lengthier than usual, had finished, Maduro had been formally accused in New York.
Renewed Energy for the New Year
With the new year begins, Sir Keir appears to have had something of a reboot. Perhaps even just a little downtime with the family at Chequers, the prime minister's country retreat.
This seemed to have left him in improved morale than at the sluggish end of 2025, a awful political year for him.
Yet, are he and his colleagues kidding themselves if they think his standing are about to turn around?
Internal Doubts
The uncomfortable truth for the PM is that numerous of his party members think he's not very good at his job. A faction of them would rather take a risk and remove him this year.
But Starmer was rejecting the idea in the interview on Saturday morning.
On several occasions he stated he'd be "evaluated at the next election", arguing no one would strip his term from him – despite the fact that the most effective strategy of preventing Nigel Farage and Reform UK reaching No 10 might be for Labour to change leader.
"We are in the battle of our times and I plan to be at the forefront," he declared.
Upcoming Local Votes
The challenge for the PM is that he will be scrutinised far sooner than then – in a huge set of elections in May throughout the UK. He attempted to contend, perhaps excessively, that they are concerning who runs councils, and who runs the devolved administrations in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not about Westminster.
True – up to a point. But although he may not want to concede it, No 10 will be held accountable by those elections too.
Despite this, Sir Keir suggesting that there were no situation under which he would step down, even if one of his MPs challenged him for the job, if those elections prove very poor for Labour.
An Optimistic Outlook
He attempted to rationalise his unpopularity by saying the voters was understandably impatient for things to get better. He sought to convince me, and the nation, that the coming months would be distinct.
The economic situation would strengthen notwithstanding rising unemployment, he said, when policies the administration put in place during their first turbulent year began to show results.
- He pledged to empty asylum hotels ahead of the current target date of 2029, but he wouldn't put a specific date on that.
- He noted too, with the qualification that it wasn't a certainty, that a peace agreement in Ukraine felt closer now than at any time since Russia's full-scale invasion.
- He revealed for the first occasion that Western allies were now talking about how to integrate US and European forces to offer security for Ukraine – to guard a potential peace.
His central point is that this year the country will "see an improvement".
A Consistent Script
The prime minister may have communicated with more energy than I've seen from him for a some time – less tense, perhaps, with a longer slot to talk.
However, in spite of encountering demands from many directions for a more decisive strategy, with much more political clarity, more urgency, more pace and more immediacy, his points were familiar ones.
When he finds himself in such significant political difficulty, should he consider a different script?
No administration, and especially not one that has been struggling in the polls for many months, has everything its as planned.
The Prime Minister's problems are not only because government is difficult, but because he and his colleagues have erred, including in the last few weeks.
Regrets and Risks
The prime minister expressed regret that he was sorry for saying he was "delighted" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK after an outcry when statements he'd made in the past – such as calls for Zionists and police to be killed – surfaced.
Sir Keir blamed "the process" for failing to identify what the activist had said before – a more diplomatic way of saying not my fault.
And he is courting clear political risks as the year progresses. His alliance with the US president takes on a new risk after Trump's intervention on Venezuela.
Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over many years, the notion he would be comfortable with this kind of intervention seems unlikely.
International Law and Brexit
He asserted he was a "career-long advocate of international law" but the public "simply do not have the complete details at the moment".
Some called for him to condemn it prior to the interview. And the government is expected to face further scrutiny to give an clear view in Parliament in the coming days.
And there has long been bubbling desire in the Labour party to undo or remake some of the consequences of Brexit.
Sir Keir denies he's doing that, but his new firmer pledge to integrate further with the European trading bloc – the giant economic European market – will probably provoke howls that he is breaking his pledge never to try to reverse the choices that flowed from Brexit.
A decision to cosy up to more of the single market will please some on his own side, but it is easy fodder for Reform and the Conservatives to