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Mounting worries exist regarding the potential of warfare among East African countries, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as hostile rhetoric has ratcheted up in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for access to the sea coast through Eritrean territory has provoked a fierce verbal exchange.

The Ethiopian leader initially stated publicly in 2023 that his nation's sea access was an vital issue, remarks that Eritrean authorities dismissed.

Relations between the two countries have frequently been strained. After a long-standing battle for independence, Eritrea, which has a long sea border, formally separated from Ethiopian rule in 1993, leaving it landlocked.

Subsequently, a territorial conflict started in which numerous people died.

Recent Statements from Ethiopia's Government

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader General Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted ownership of Eritrean coastal city of Assab – about 60km from the boundary - and implied the desire to seize it militarily.

In early September, the Prime Minister said the country's "blunder" of being denied passage to the sea as a due to Eritrean independence would be "corrected soon".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be returned "using武力".

Eritrean Reaction to the Statements

Amid ongoing threats from Ethiopian officials, Asmara's position has been restricted to concise remarks on X from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

Officials have denied Ethiopia's push for sea access calling it "dangerous" and a "harmful plan" of "expansionism" – a approach of reclaiming previous domains.

Government spokespeople alerted on 16 September that moves to validate "obvious provocation" would have significant repercussions for Ethiopia and its neighbors and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Preparations on the Border

There have been few indications of major military movements in the border areas between the two countries.

Nonetheless, in Ethiopia, government media has broadcast graduation ceremonies of thousands of cadets at various military training camps.

The head of staff section of the military, the officer, stated recently in an discussion that the military was in a "secure situation" as "many thousands of youths" were joining it, which he said was "a message to our adversaries".

Historical Background of the Dispute

For decades from 1890, Eritrea was ruled by Italian rulers.

Following World War II, it was then managed by the UK forces before evolving into a integrated region of Ethiopia.

Yet in the early 1960s the ruler cancelled this arrangement and Eritrea became completely integrated into the Ethiopian state.

A extended internal conflict occurred, finishing with Ethiopia's defeat in the early 1990s. Independence was then endorsed by voters in a plebiscite in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the governments in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they disagreed over the specific demarcation of their common border, leading to war in 1998.

Although this finished in a truce in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the neighbors remained at in dispute.

This changed in 2018, when Abiy made overtures to Eritrean President the president. The both leaders endorsed a declaration that the war was over – a move that won the Prime Minister the international recognition.

The both administrations were then cooperators in the country's 2020-2022 armed struggle in Tigray.

Yet relations have subsequently deteriorated again.