Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
